A CLOSE LOOK BY AVERAGE CITIZEN MAY CAUSE PESSIMISM
Photo by Ilja Nedilko on Unsplash
Nuclear optimism is a tough sell.
On a recent Zoom event President Emma Belcher of Ploughshares Fund, one of my all-time favorite nonprofits, talked with Iranian affairs expert Ali Vaez about that beautiful, once-friendly country and its nuclear weapons situation. I brought every ounce of my congenital optimism to the conversation.
It is worth emphasizing here that my understanding of nuclear weaponry is about on par with my understanding of Iranian affairs. I.e., nonexistent. What I do know is that we have a lovely planet to live on and it would take only a few nuclear weapons to do it in. The U.S. now has 5,000 or so; Russia pretty much keeps up, and then there are China, N. Korea, a few somewhat friendlier countries . . . but so far not Iran.
How to maintain optimism in light of the above? Currently no one able to pull the first trigger wants to risk blowing himself and the rest of us to bits. And most of these guys — they’re all guys — are relatively sane. (This is debatable, and could change.)
Throw in the complicated animosities of Israel, Saudi Arabia (“If Iran gets one, we’ll get one ourselves . . .”) and others, and pessimism quickly prevails.
It is a bizarre game, this You-fire-at-me-and-I’ll-fire-at-you, but once we Americans launched it others wanted in. Proliferation rapidly became strategy. Then, some years back, a few level heads acknowledged that things (and weapons) were getting out of hand and we began cautiously moving in the other direction. (“I’ll reduce my supply if you’ll reduce yours.”) Ploughshares was founded in 1981 to support the reduction — and in a best case scenario the elimination — of nuclear weapons;
Bringing Iran into the nuclear-armed fold has not seemed a very good idea. This led to the “Iran Nuclear Deal” — the Joint Cooperative Plan of Action (JCPOA to its friends) signed by Iran, Russia, China, the U.S., Britain, France and Germany in 2015 — which limited Iran’s nuclear activities (the things one does on the pathway to getting a nuclear weapon) in return for removal of a bunch of anti-Iran sanctions.
People who understand these things speak in terms of how long it would take Iran to have its own nuclear weapon. It was a matter of months when the treaty was in force. It is now a matter of days.
This is largely because former president Trump, in his infinite wisdom, pulled us out of the JCPOA treaty in 2018. It’s complicated, but the Council on Foreign Relations summarizes it here. The chaos since then is also complicated, as anyone who reads the headlines (in legitimate newspapers, not on social media) can attest. JCPOA participants periodically try to resurrect it. Such efforts have been thwarted, though, by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and other struggles of humankind.
Much of the above was discussed — far more completely and eloquently — by Dr. Belcher and Presidential Adviser Vaez. Toward the end of the conversation there was this exchange:
“All we can hope for,” said Vaez, “is preserving the status quo.”
Added the Ploughshares president, “It’s a very bad status quo.”
Here is the question I was poised to enter into the Chat: “Is there a ray of hope anywhere?” It felt unanswerable.
Still, Ploughshares is strong, and there are yet a few months until election day.
